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Geopolitical risks escalate

The developments in Russia/Ukraine have made geopolitical risk a live event for investment markets
23 February 2022
    Download the full reportPDF, 436.25KB

    Key takeaways

    • The developments in Russia/Ukraine have made geopolitical risk a live event for investment markets, alongside March’s US Fed policy lift-off and ongoing China macro uncertainty
    • Given the fluidity of the situation, there is significant uncertainty in terms of what could happen next
    • Recent geopolitical developments adversely affect the growth/inflation mix, and the “stagflation tone” to economic data is likely to remain with us into Q2, amid higher commodity prices
    • From mid-Q2, we expect the growth/inflation backdrop to improve, allowing risky asset classes to perform