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Investment Event

Goldilocks interrupted?
16 January 2025
    Articles
    Download the full reportPDF, 293.63KB

    Key takeaways

    • The selloff in government bonds since September comes amid robust economic data and elevated economic uncertainty
    • A move of the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5 per cent cannot be ruled out on a temporary basis, although we see a predominantly a range-bound market as more likely in Q1
    • Investment markets performed strongly in 2024 and risk premia in asset classes like stocks and credits have fallen. This implies potential for greater sensitivity to higher risk-free rates. However, our base case of no recession, further rate cuts, and profits resilience means periods of risk aversion and market volatility can offer attractive entry points

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